A ranar 17 ga watan Agusta, Meng Wei, kakakin hukumar raya kasa da yin kwaskwarima, ya gabatar da karfin amfani da makamashi a farkon rabin shekarar nan: Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, da Jiangsu sun kasance larduna 9 (yankuna) a farkon rabin farkon bana. Ƙarfin amfani da makamashi bai ragu ba a kowace shekara amma ya karu. Rage yawan ƙarfin amfani da makamashi a larduna 10 bai cika buƙatun ci gaba ba, kuma yanayin kiyaye makamashi na ƙasa yana da tsanani sosai. Takardar ta bukaci larduna 9 (yankunan) da karfin makamashin su ba ya raguwa sai dai ya karu, da kuma garuruwa da lardunan da karfin makamashin bai ragu ba sai dai ya karu, a wannan shekara sun dakatar da bitar ayyukan ceton makamashi na ayyukan "mafi girma biyu" ban da manyan ayyukan da jihar ta tsara. Sannan kuma ya bukaci dukkan yankunan da su dauki kwararan matakai don tabbatar da kammala shirin sarrafa makamashin da ake amfani da shi na shekara-shekara, musamman aikin da aka yi niyya na rage karfin amfani da makamashi.
An yi la'akari da larduna 9 (Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, da Jiangsu) inda ƙarfin makamashi bai ragu ba amma ya tashi a farkon rabin shekara, yawancinsu sun kasance manyan masu samar da aluminum, zinc, da tin. Gundumar. A shekarar 2020, yawan sinadarin aluminium na farko a wadannan larduna 9 zai kai kashi 40% na kasar, yawan sinadarin zinc zai kai kashi 46.1% na kasar, sannan adadin da aka samu zai kai kashi 59% na kasar.
A cikin watan Mayu da Yuli, Yunnan, Guangdong, da Guangxi sun aiwatar da matakan takaita wutar lantarki da hana samar da wutar lantarki zagaye biyu, lamarin da ya haifar da cikas ga samar da wadannan nau'ikan guda uku. A mahangar da ake ganin na yanzu, wuraren gargadin matakin farko sun hada da Yunnan da Guangxi, inda wutar lantarki da samar da wutar lantarki ta ragu sosai a wannan mataki, kuma sun hada da muhimman wuraren da ake samar da sinadarin aluminium da tataccen zinc kamar Xinjiang da Shaanxi. Don haka, ba a yanke hukuncin cewa za a kara fadada nau'ikan da ba na takin zamani zuwa Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Guangdong da sauran wurare ba. A nan gaba, ya zama dole a mai da hankali sosai kan manufar rage wutar lantarki da samarwa. Idan ikon sarrafa makamashi ya ƙara ƙaruwa a nan gaba, yana iya yin mummunan tasiri akan wadataccen kayan da aka rigaya ya lalace.
Bugu da kari, Guangdong da Jiangsu dukkansu yankuna ne masu matukar amfani. Don haka, idan aka iyakance wutar lantarki da samarwa a waɗannan yankuna biyu a cikin lokaci na gaba, za a hana amfani da shi a ɓangaren da ba na ƙarfe ba.
Gabaɗaya, a ƙarƙashin ikon amfani da makamashi, ƙayyadaddun abubuwan samar da kayayyaki akan samfuran da ba na ƙarfe ba (aluminum, zinc, tin) zai fi yiwuwa ya fi tasiri akan amfani. A lokaci guda kuma, akwai yuwuwar cewa tsangwama a bangaren samar da kayan aikin da ba na takin ba zai ci gaba da gudana na dogon lokaci a nan gaba.
Aluminum kasuwa wadata da kuma bukatar hangen zaman gaba
A ranar 11 ga watan Mayu, Yunnan ya aiwatar da aikin samar da aluminium na lantarki mai saurin gaske a lardin, yana bukatar rage kaya da kashi 10%; a ranar 18 ga Mayu, karuwar raguwar wutar lantarki yana buƙatar raguwar 40% na kaya. Tun daga ranar 31 ga Mayu, bisa ga halin da ake ciki, ainihin ma'aunin raguwar samar da kayayyaki ya wuce 20%, wanda ke nufin cewa ma'aunin raguwar samar da kayayyaki a wannan yanki ya kai ton 880,000.
Tun tsakiyar watan Yuli, Yunnan ya sake takaita wutar lantarki da samar da kayayyaki. Daga cikin su, kamfanonin aluminum sun bukaci a rage kashi 25%. A cikin mako na biyu na Agusta, kamfanonin aluminum sun fara aiwatar da raguwar 30% na samarwa. A cikin makon farko na watan Agusta, Guangxi ya shiga cikin rage wutar lantarki, tare da kamfanonin aluminum suna yanke wutar lantarki da 10%; da kuma buƙatar kamfanonin aluminum don aiwatar da iyakar samar da 30% kafin Agusta 15. An kiyasta tasirin aluminum a wannan lokacin a matakin 400,000 zuwa 500,000 ton. A sa'i daya kuma, ton 880,000 da aka rufe a baya a Yunnan, ba su da fatan dawowar samar da kayayyaki a watan Agusta.
Saboda haka, kayan aikin aluminum na gida ya ci gaba da raguwa a cikin shekara. Bisa hasashen da aka yi na tsarin samar da kayayyaki, babban abin fitar da aluminum na kasar Sin a shekarar 2021 ana sa ran zai kai tan miliyan 39.1, wanda ya zarce hasashen da aka yi a farkon shekarar. Sakamakon ya fadi da ton 900,000. A ranar 17 ga watan Agusta, bayan sanar da kammala aikin sarrafa makamashi biyu a farkon rabin shekara, matsin lamba kan hana samar da makamashi a jihar Xinjiang ya karu sosai, kuma ana sa ran za a kara rage yawan almuran da ake fitarwa a duk shekara.
A lokaci guda, amfani da gida ya ragu a cikin watan Agusta kuma ya fara canzawa a hankali zuwa lokacin kololuwar gargajiya. Lokacin kololuwar al'ada daga Satumba zuwa Nuwamba zai fitar da amfani mafi kyawun wata-wata.
Marubucin ya annabta cewa ko da tare da zubar da ajiyar ajiya da kuma shigo da kari, ma'auni na samar da aluminum da buƙatun za su kasance cikin yanayi mai kyau daga baya a wannan shekara, kuma kayan aiki na kayan aiki a ƙarshen shekara na iya zama daidai a matakin 600,000-650,000 ton a bara.
Gabaɗaya, farashin yuan / ton 20,000 bai riga ya nuna cikakkiyar wadatar aluminium da tsarin buƙatu na gaba ba. Ƙaddamar da bangaren samar da kayayyaki, daidaitawar sassan mabukaci da kuma kasancewar buƙatun sake cikawa na ƙasashen waje, musamman ma tsoma baki na bangaren samar da kayayyaki, inganta kayan aiki da ma'auni, a cikin matsakaicin lokaci, ana sa ran za a kara bude sararin samaniya don farashin aluminum.
Kasuwar Zinc da hangen nesa na buƙatu
Tun daga tsakiyar watan Mayu, Yunnan ya fara aiwatar da manufar canza wutar lantarki, kuma yawancin kamfanonin narkar da zinc na gida sun rage nauyin wutar lantarki. Ana iya raba shi dalla-dalla zuwa matakai da yawa: Mataki na 1: Mayu 10 da Mayu 17 na makonni biyu nauyin wutar lantarki ya ragu da kashi 10%; mataki na biyu: makonni biyu na 24 ga watan Mayu da 1 ga watan Yuni, raguwar lodin wutar lantarki cikin sauri ya karu zuwa kashi 30% -50%, har ma wasu kamfanoni sun daina samarwa; mataki na uku: Ranar 7 ga watan Yuni, iyakar samar da masana'anta na Zhou Yunnan ya fara raguwa kadan, kuma sannu a hankali ya koma cikin tsakiyar watan Yuni. An kiyasta fitar da sinadarin Zinc na Yunnan daga watan Mayu zuwa Yuni ya kai tan 30,000.
Tun daga ranar 14 ga watan Yuli, Yunnan ya sake hana wutar lantarki da samar da wutar lantarki, inda ya bukaci kamfanonin da ke hakar zinc su rage nauyinsu da kashi 5% zuwa 40% a lokacin da ake yawan amfani da wutar lantarki; raguwar lodi a cikin watan Agusta an sake fadada shi zuwa 5% -50%, kuma an fara haɓakawa a cikin rabin na biyu na Agusta. Ƙananan gyare-gyare. A sa'i daya kuma, yankin Guangxi shi ma ya shiga aikin rabon wutar lantarki a watan Agusta, kuma kamfanonin hakar zinc na gida sun rage nauyin da kusan kashi 50%. Kamfanoni guda ɗaya a cikin Mongoliya na ciki suma sun aiwatar da iyakar wutar lantarki da ƙasa da 10% a cikin watan Agusta. An yi kiyasin tasirin da takurewar wutar lantarki kan samar da sinadarin zinc a watan Yuli ya kai tan 10,000, kuma yana iya wuce tan 20,000 a watan Agusta.
Bugu da kari, a ranar 16 ga watan Agusta, wani babban hatsarin tsaro ya afku a wata masana'antar sarrafa gubar dalma a Mongoliya ta ciki. An dakatar da samar da narka gubar sa, kuma samar da sinadarin zinc shima yana fuskantar rashin tabbas a tsakiyar wa'adi.
Don haka, karuwar da ake samu na narkar da sinadarin zinc a cikin watan Yuli ya yi kasa da yadda ake zato, kuma aikin da ake samu a wata-wata a watan Agusta zai sake faduwa. Daga baya a wannan shekarar kuma, za a rage yawan karuwar da ake samu na narkar da sinadarin zinc a cikin gida.
A wannan mataki, kayan aikin zinc na cikin gida yana canzawa a ƙaramin matakin tan 110,000-120,000, kuma tabo na cikin gida yana nuna ƙima, musamman a Guangdong. The premium ya fi bayyananne; ana sa ran cewa kayan aikin zinc na cikin gida zai ci gaba a 100,000 daga baya a wannan shekara- Matsayin tan 150,000.
Tare da babban kari na ajiyar juji, wadatar zinc a cikin gida da buƙatu na iya canzawa daga ma'auni mai ma'ana zuwa ragi kaɗan daga baya a wannan shekara, amma girman rarar yana da ɗan ƙaramin ƙarfi.
A taƙaice, ana kiyaye iyakacin samar da sinadarin zinc a yankin kudu maso yamma, kuma za a rushe bangaren samar da narkewa ko kuma a daidaita shi nan gaba a wannan shekara. A sa'i daya kuma, ana ci gaba da samun bunkasuwa a kasashen waje, kuma kasar ta fara canjawa sannu a hankali zuwa lokacin amfani da kololuwar. Zubar da ajiyar ajiyar na iya ɗaga matakan ƙirƙira zinc a matakai, amma ƙimar haɓaka na iya iyakancewa. A cikin gajeren lokaci, ana sa ran farashin zinc zai tashi zuwa yuan miliyan 23,000 -23.2. A cikin tsaka-tsakin lokaci, yana iya zama da wahala farashin zinc ya fita daga kasuwa mai tasowa.
Tin kasuwa wadata da kuma bukatar hangen zaman gaba
Rarraba noman gwangwani yana da yawa sosai, kuma wadatar manyan ƙasashe masu noma yana cikin damuwa koyaushe
Rarraba samar da kwano mai ladabi a duniya yana da yawa sosai. A cikin 2020, China, Indonesia da Malaysia za su yi lissafin kashi 75.2% na abubuwan da ake fitarwa a duniya a Asiya. Har ila yau, rabon noman gwangwani mai tsafta a kasar Sin ya maida hankali sosai. Samar da das mai tacewa a Guangxi da Yunnan tare ya kai kashi 59% na kasar.
Tun daga farkon wannan shekara, ana ci gaba da samun ci gaba da tabarbarewar annobar a kasashen Indonesia, Malaysia, da Myanmar, lamarin da ya kawo tsaikon farfadowar da ake samu daga manyan kasashen da ke noman tin a kudu maso gabashin Asiya. Fitar da Kamfanin Smelting na Malaysian da Kamfanin Tianma ya ragu sosai. A cikin kwata na farko, ingantaccen kwano na Kamfanin Tianma ya ragu da kusan tan 10,000 a duk shekara. , Roskill, babban jami'in Kamfanin Smelting na Malaysian, yana sa ran rage samar da 50-10,000 ton a wannan shekara.
Tun daga farkon wannan shekara, barkewar cutar a Myanmar ba wai kawai ta shafi nomanta kadai ba, har ma ta shafi aikin kwastam na tashoshin jiragen ruwa na kasar Sin. Sakamakon barkewar cutar a kasar Myanmar, tashar ruwa ta Ruili ta Yunnan ta yi gwajin gwajin sinadarin nucleic da kuma rufe kwastam ga daukacin ma'aikata, lamarin da ya yi illa ga shigo da gwangwani a cikin gida zuwa wani matsayi. A sa'i daya kuma, binciken muhalli a watan Afrilu, da katsewar wutar lantarki a Yunnan tun daga tsakiyar watan Mayu da katsewar wutar lantarki ta Guangxi a cikin watan Agusta, duk sun yi mummunan katsalandan ga samar da dalma da aka tace.
Rashin wutar lantarki ya haifar da raguwar wadatar gida da ba zato ba tsammani
A cikin watan Mayu, saboda karancin wutar lantarki a Yunnan, an rufe duk masu aikin kwano banda Yunxi. A cikin wannan watan, samar da gwangwani a cikin gida ya kusan tan 2,000 ƙasa fiye da yadda ake tsammani a farkon wata. A ranar 28 ga Yuni, Yunxi ta sami kulawa na tsawon kwanaki 45. An ci gaba da samun cikas sosai wajen samar da dalma a kasar Sin. A watan Yuli, abin da aka samu na tin ya ragu da tan 2,800 daga watan da ya gabata. Daga tsakiyar watan Agusta zuwa farkon watan Agusta, sannu a hankali Yunxi ya murmure, amma Guangxi ya damu da yanke wutar lantarki, wanda aka yi kiyasin zai yi tasiri wajen samar da kusan tan 1,000, wanda zai shafi ci gaban da ake samu na farfado da das da aka tace.
Tun daga watan Mayun da ya gabata, an samu ci gaba mai karfi daga yadda ake amfani da tin a ketare, ana ci gaba da bude taga yadda ake fitar da dalma zuwa kasashen ketare, kuma yawan dalolin da kasar Sin ke fitarwa ya karu sosai, haka kuma aikin narkar da dalma na kasar Sin ya yi tasiri sakamakon samar da wutar lantarki a Yunnan da Guangxi. Hannun jari-hujja sun kasance a matsayi mafi girma, kuma duka hannayen jarin Shanghai da na London sun nuna halin da ake ciki sosai.
Abubuwan da ke bayyana kwano na ci gaba da raguwa
Ya zuwa ranar 13 ga watan Agusta jimillar kididdigar tin na LME+SHFE ya kai ton 3,57, raguwar tan 3,708 daga karshen shekarar da ta gabata da kuma raguwar tan 5,236 daga daidai wannan lokacin a bara. A daidai wannan lokacin, hannun jarin tin na Shanghai ya fadi da kusan tan 1,500, wanda ya kasance mai matukar rahusa tun bayan da aka jera shi, yayin da Lunxi ya kasance a matakin kasa da kusan tan 2,000. Gabaɗaya, ƙwaƙƙwaran ƙira na kwano ya nuna ci gaba da koma baya.
Lun tin spot da Shanghai tin spot premium ya kasance mai girma
Sakamakon karancin kayayyakin da aka kera a Shanghai da London, Lunxi Cash-3M ya ci gaba da yin tarihi tun daga watan Fabrairu, yayin da farashin tin na Shanghai ya karu sosai tun watan Yuni. Farashin tin na Shanghai na yanzu shine yuan 5,000/ton. Hakanan yana da matsayi mai girma a tarihi. Wannan ya nuna cewa, a karkashin cikakken ƙarancin kayayyaki, duka Shanghai da na London suna cikin mawuyacin hali.
Gabaɗaya, ɓangaren samar da tin yana ci gaba da damuwa, kuma amfani ya amfana daga ci gaba da haɓaka mai girma a cikin semiconductor. Hannun hannun jari na LME+SHFE sun faɗi don yin rikodin raguwa, kuma ingots ɗin tin na ci gaba da nuna halin da ake ciki sosai. Sakamakon illar da annobar ta haifar, manyan kasashen da ke samar da tin a kudu maso gabashin Asiya sun kawo tsaiko wajen farfado da noman noma, kana ana ci gaba da dagula al'amura a kasar sakamakon wutar lantarki da sauran matsaloli, musamman a yankunan Yunnan da Guangxi, wuraren da ake samar da tin a cikin gida. A cikin wannan yanayi, ana sa ran Shanghai Tin zai kai Yuan/ton 250,000 a cikin watanni uku masu zuwa.
Disclaimer: Bayanan da ke cikin wannan labarin don tunani ne kawai, ba a matsayin shawarar yanke shawara kai tsaye ba. Idan kun keta haƙƙin ku na doka ba da gangan ba, da fatan za a tuntuɓi ku ku magance shi cikin lokaci.
Lokacin aikawa: Agusta-23-2021