Musi waNyamavhuvhu 17, Meng Wei, mutauriri weNational Development and Reform Commission, akaunza kusimba kwekushandiswa kwesimba muhafu yekutanga yegore rino: Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, uye Jiangsu aive matunhu mapfumbamwe (matunhu) muhafu yekutanga yegore rino. Simba rekushandisa simba harina kuderera gore negore asi rakawedzera. Kuderedzwa kwesimba rekushandisa simba mumatunhu gumi haana kuzadzisa zvinodiwa zvekufambira mberi, uye mamiriro ekuchengetedza simba enyika akanyanya kuoma. Gwaro iri rinoda kuti mapurovhinzi (matunhu) ane simba risingadzike asi kuti awedzere, uye maguta nematunhu ane simba resimba risingadzike asi kuti awedzere, gore rino amise kuongorora kwekuchengetedza simba kwezvirongwa zve "mbiri mbiri" kunze kwezvirongwa zvikuru zvakarongwa nehurumende. Uye kurudzira nharaunda dzese kuti dzitore matanho anoshanda ekuona kupedzwa kwegore negore rekushandisa simba maviri ekudzora chinangwa, kunyanya chinangwa chekudzikisa simba rekushandisa zvakanyanya.
Tichitarisa kubva kumatunhu mapfumbamwe (Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, neJiangsu) uko kusimba kwesimba hakuna kudonha asi kwakakwira muhafu yekutanga yegore, vazhinji vacho vaive vagadziri vakuru vealuminium, zinc, uye tin. Ruwa. Muna 2020, kubuda kwealuminiyamu yepuraimari mumatunhu mapfumbamwe kuchaita 40% yenyika, kubuda kwezinc ingot kuchaita 46.1% yenyika, uye kubuda kwetin ingot kuchaita 59% yenyika.
Muna Chivabvu naChikunguru, Yunnan, Guangdong, uye Guangxi vakaita mativi maviri ekudzikisira magetsi uye zvirambidzo zvekugadzira, izvo zvakakonzera kukanganisa kukuru pakubuda kwemhando nhatu idzi. Kubva pakuona kwazvino, nzvimbo dzekutanga dzeyambiro dzinosanganisira Yunnan neGuangxi, uko magetsi nekugadzira zvakadzikiswa zvakanyanya panguva ino, uye kuvhara nzvimbo dzakakosha dzekugadzira electrolytic aluminium uye yakanatswa zinc seXinjiang uye Shaanxi. Naizvozvo, hazvitaurwe kuti marudzi asiri-ferrous achawedzerwa kuXinjiang, Shaanxi, Guangdong nedzimwe nzvimbo. Mune ramangwana, zvakakosha kunyatsoteerera mutemo wekuderedzwa kwemagetsi nekugadzirwa. Kana simba rekushandisa simba richiwedzera kuwedzera mune ramangwana, rinogona kuva nemamwe maitiro asina kunaka pane yatove isina kusimba.
Pamusoro pezvo, Guangdong neJiangsu ese ari maviri akakosha ekushandisa matunhu. Naizvozvo, kana simba uye kugadzirwa zvakaganhurirwa mumatunhu maviri aya munguva inotevera, kushandiswa mune isiri-ferrous sector kucharambidzwa zvakare.
Kazhinji, pasi pekutonga kwekushandiswa kwesimba, iyo yekugovera-side zvipingamupinyi pane zvisiri-ferrous zvigadzirwa (aluminium, zinc, tin) zvingangove zvakakura kupfuura kukanganisa kwekushandisa. Panguva imwecheteyo, pane mukana mukuru wekuti kupindira kune chikamu chekugovera chechikamu chisina ferrous chicharamba chichienderera mberi kwenguva yakareba mune ramangwana.
Aluminium musika wekupa uye yekuda maonero
Musi waChivabvu 11, Yunnan akaita kugadzirwa kwakadzama kwealuminum ye electrolytic mudunhu, ichida kudzikiswa kwegumi muzana; musi waMay 18, kuwedzera kwemagetsi ekucheka kunoda kuderedzwa kwe40% mumutoro. Kubva muna Chivabvu 31, maererano nemamiriro ekutevera, chiyero chaicho chekudzikisa kugadzirwa chaive chinopfuura 20%, izvo zvinoreva kuti chiyero chekudzikisa kugadzirwa munzvimbo iyi chingangoita 880,000 matani.
Kubva pakati paChikunguru, Yunnan akadzora zvakare magetsi uye kugadzirwa. Pakati pavo, makambani ealuminium aida 25% kuderedzwa. Muvhiki rechipiri raNyamavhuvhu, makambani ealuminium akatanga kushandisa kuderedzwa kwe30% mukugadzirwa. Muvhiki yekutanga yaNyamavhuvhu, Guangxi yakabatana nekudzikiswa kwemagetsi, nemakambani ealuminium achicheka simba ne10%; uye inoda makambani ealuminium kuti ashandise 30% yekugadzirwa kwemuganhu pamberi paAugust 15. Kukanganiswa kwealuminium nguva ino inofungidzirwa pamwero we400,000 kusvika ku500,000 tons. Panguva imwecheteyo, 880,000 matani akambovharwa muYunnan haana tariro yekuzotangazve kugadzira muna Nyamavhuvhu.
Naizvozvo, kugadzirwa kwealuminium mudzimba kwakaramba kuchidzikira gore rose. Zvinoenderana netarisiro yakanyanya kunaka yekugadzira kuronga fungidziro, yeChina yekutanga aluminium kubuda muna 2021 inotarisirwa kuita 39.1 miriyoni matani, ayo akakwira kupfuura fungidziro yekutanga kwegore. Kubuda kwakadonha ne900,000 matani. Musi waNyamavhuvhu 17, mushure mekuziviswa kwekupedzwa kwehuviri kutonga kwesimba rekushandisa muhafu yekutanga yegore, kudzvanywa kwezvirambidzo zvekugadzira muXinjiang kwakawedzera zvakanyanya, uye zvinotarisirwa kuti inotevera gore negore kubuda kwealuminium kunowedzera kuderedzwa.
Panguva imwecheteyo, kushandiswa kwepamba kwakadzikira muna Nyamavhuvhu uye kwakatanga kuchinjika zvishoma nezvishoma kuenda kumwaka wepamusoro wepamusoro. Yechinyakare mwaka wepamusoro kubva munaGunyana kusvika Mbudzi uchafambisa kushandiswa zviri nani mwedzi-pa-mwedzi.
Munyori anofanotaura kuti kunyangwe nekuraswa kwezvakachengeterwa uye zvekuwedzera zvekunze, pepa rearuminiyamu rekupa uye kudiwa richaramba riri muchimiro chakanaka gare gare gore rino, uye iyo yekutakura-yepamusoro inventory pakupera kwegore inogona kunge yakati sandara pamwero we600,000-650,000 matani gore rapfuura.
Pakazere, mutengo we20,000 yuan/ton hausati wanyatsoratidza ramangwana realuminium rekupa uye pateni yekuda. Kubatana kwedivi rekupa, kugadziridzwa kwechikamu chevatengi uye kuvapo kwezve mhiri kwemakungwa kudiwa kwekuzadzazve, kunyanya kupindira kwedivi rekupa, kukwidziridza kugovera uye kudiwa kwesheti, mukati menguva yepakati, nzvimbo yekuti mitengo yealuminium ikwire inotarisirwa kuvhurwa zvakare.
Zinc musika wekupa uye kudiwa maonero
Kutanga pakati paChivabvu, Yunnan akatanga kuita mutemo wekuchinja simba, uye mazhinji mabhizinesi ekunyungudutsa zinc akadzikisa simba remagetsi. Inogona kukamurwa zvakati wandei mumatanho akati wandei: Chikamu 1: Chivabvu 10 uye Chivabvu 17 kwemavhiki maviri Mutoro wemagetsi wakadonha ne10%; danho rechipiri: mavhiki maviri eMay 24 uye June 1st, kuderedzwa kwemagetsi mutoro wakakurumidza kuwedzera kusvika 30% -50%, uye kunyange mamwe mabhizimisi akamira kugadzirwa; danho rechitatu: Chikumi 7 Chikumi Zhou Yunnan muganho wekugadzira wakatanga kudzikira zvishoma, uye kugadzira zvishoma nezvishoma kwakatangazve pakati-kusvika-kupera kwaJune. Kubuda kweYunnan's zinc kunyunguduka kubva muna Chivabvu kusvika Chikumi kunofungidzirwa kunge 30,000 matani.
Kutanga kubva munaChikunguru 14, Yunnan akadzora zvakare magetsi uye kugadzirwa, zvichida kuti makambani ekunyungudutsa zinc aderedze mutoro wavo ne5% -40% panguva yepamusoro pekushandiswa kwemagetsi; kuderedzwa kwemutoro munaAugust kwakambowedzerwa kusvika ku5% -50%, uye simba rakatanga muhafu yechipiri yaAugust. Kugadziriswa kudiki. Panguva imwecheteyo, dunhu reGuangxi rakabatanawo nechiyero chemagetsi muna Nyamavhuvhu, uye mabhizinesi emuno ekunyungudutsa zinc akadzikisa mutoro ne50%. Makambani ega ega muInner Mongolia akaisawo muganhu wesimba wepasi pegumi muzana muna Nyamavhuvhu. Mhedzisiro yekudzikiswa kwemagetsi pane zinc smelting inobuda muna Chikunguru inofungidzirwa kunge ingangoita matani gumi, uye inogona kudarika 20,000 matani muna Nyamavhuvhu.
Mukuwedzera, pana Nyamavhuvhu 16, tsaona huru yezvokuchengetedza yakaitika mubhizimisi rokunyungudutsa robvu-zinc muInner Mongolia. Kugadzira kwayo kunyungudutsa kunotungamira kwakamiswa, uye kugadzirwa kwayo kunyungudutsa zinc kuri kutarisana nekusagadzikana kuri pachena pakati petemu.
Naizvozvo, kuwedzera kwemumba zinc smelting kubuda muna Chikunguru kwaive kushoma pane zvaitarisirwa, uye mwedzi-pa-mwedzi wakabuda muna Nyamavhuvhu uchadonha zvakare. Gare gare gore rino, mwero wekuwedzera mudzimba zinc smelting kubuda uchadzikiswa zvakare.
Panguva ino, iyo yemba zinc ingot inventory iri kuchinjika pamwero wakaderera we110,000-120,000 matani, uye nzvimbo yepamba iri kuratidza premium, kunyanya muGuangdong. Iyo premium inonyanya kuoneka; zvinotarisirwa kuti iyo yemba zinc ingot inventory ichaenderera mberi pa100,000 gare gare gore rino- Chiyero che150,000 tons.
Nekuwedzera kukuru kwenzvimbo dzekurasira, zinc ingot yemumba uye kudiwa kunogona kusimuka kubva pachiyero chakaomesesa kuenda kune kudiki kusara gare gare gore rino, asi hukuru hwezvakasara hudiki.
Muchidimbu, muganho wekugadzira we zinc kunyunguduka mudunhu rekumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero unochengetwa, uye rutivi rwekunyungudutsa rwunozovhiringwa kana kugadziridzwa gare gare gore rino. Panguva imwecheteyo, kushandiswa kwemhiri kwemakungwa kwakaramba kuchivandudza, uye nyika yakatanga kuchinja zvishoma nezvishoma kusvika kumwaka wepamusoro wekushandisa. Kuraswa kwezvakachengetwa kunogona kukwidza zinc mazinga mumatanho, asi mwero wekuwedzera unogona kushomeka. Munguva pfupi, zinc mitengo inotarisirwa kukwira kusvika ku23,000 -23.2 mamiriyoni yuan / ton. Munguva yepakati, zvingave zvakaoma kuti mitengo ye zinc ibude mumusika wakajeka wekufamba.
Tin musika wekupa uye kudiwa maonero
Kugoverwa kwekugadzirwa kwerata kwakanyanyisa, uye kugoverwa kwenyika huru dzinogadzira kunogara kuchivhiringidzwa
Kugoverwa kwekugadzirwa kwemarata akacheneswa munyika kwakanyanyisa. Muna 2020, China, Indonesia neMalaysia dzichaita 75.2% yezvakabuda muAsia. Kugoverwa kwekugadzirwa kwetini yakanatswa muChina zvakare kwakanyanyisa. Kugadzirwa kwemarata akacheneswa muGuangxi neYunnan pamwe chete kunoita 59% yenyika.
Kubva kutanga kwegore rino, mamiriro edenda muIndonesia, Malaysia, neMyanmar ari kuramba achiwedzera, izvo zvaderedza kudzoreredzwa kwekubuda kwenyika huru dzinogadzira matani muSoutheast Asia. Zvakabuda zveMalaysian Smelting Group neTianma Company zvakatodonha zvakanyanya. Muchikamu chekutanga, matani akacheneswa akabuda eTianma Kambani akadzikira neanenge zviuru gumi zvematani gore negore. , Roskill, mutungamiri weMalaysian Smelting Group, anotarisira kuderedza kugadzirwa ne50-10,000 matani gore rino.
Kubva kutanga kwegore rino, kubuda muMyanmar hakuna kungokanganisa kugadzira kwayo chete, asi kwakakanganisawo kucheneswa kwetsika dzezviteshi zveChinese. Nekuda kwedenda muMyanmar, chiteshi cheRuili cheYunnan chakaitwa bvunzo dzakawanda nucleic acid uye kuvharwa kwetsika kune vese vashandi, izvo zvakanganisa kutengwa kwesimbi kwemba kune imwe nhanho. Panguva imwecheteyo, kuongorora kwezvakatipoteredza muna Kubvumbi, kudzikiswa kwemagetsi muYunnan kubva pakati paMay uye Guangxi kugerwa kwemagetsi muna Nyamavhuvhu zvese zvakakanganisa kugadzirwa kwemarata.
Kudzimwa kwemagetsi kwakakonzera kudzikira kusingatarisirwi kwezvinhu zvemumba
Muna Chivabvu, nekuda kwekushomeka kwemagetsi muYunnan, ese anonyungudutsa marata kunze kweYunxi akavharwa. Mumwedzi iwoyo, kugadzirwa kwemarata epamba kwaive kwakadzikira matani zviuru zviviri pane zvaitarisirwa kutanga kwemwedzi. Musi waChikumi 28, Yunxi akagadziriswa kwemazuva anopfuura makumi mana nemashanu. Kugadzirwa kwetin ingot kweChina kwakaramba kuchikanganiswa zvakanyanya. Muna Chikunguru, kubuda kwetin ingot kwakadonha ne2,800 matani kubva pamwedzi wapfuura. Pakati pekutanga kwaNyamavhuvhu, Yunxi akapora zvishoma nezvishoma, asi Guangxi yakavhiringidzwa nekudzimwa kwemagetsi, izvo zvinofungidzirwa kuti zvinokanganisa kugadzirwa kwematani chiuru, izvo zvichakanganisa kufambira mberi kwekudzoreredzwa kwekugadzirwa kwetin.
Kubva muna Chivabvu, zvichibatsirwa nekukura kwakasimba kwekushandiswa kwerata mhiri kwemakungwa, hwindo rekunze remarata rakaramba richivhurwa, uye kutengeswa kwetin ingot kweChina kwakawedzera zvakanyanya, uye kunyunguduka kweChina kwakakanganiswa nekugoverwa kwemagetsi muYunnan neGuangxi. Tin stocks yakaramba yakaderera, uye zvese zveShanghai neLondon tin stocks zvakaratidza mamiriro akaomesesa.
Iyo inooneka tin inventory inoramba ichiderera
Kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu 13, iyo yakazara LME + SHFE tin hesiti yaive matani 3,57, kudzikira kwe3,708 matani kubva mukupera kwegore rapfuura uye kudzikira kwe5,236 matani kubva panguva imwecheteyo gore rapfuura. Munguva imwe cheteyo, zvitoro zvemarata eShanghai zvakawira kusvika pamatani chiuru nemazana mashanu, yaive yakaderera zvakanyanya kubva pakunyorwa, ukuwo Lunxi yakaramba iri padanho rakaderera rematani zviuru zviviri. Pakati pese, iyo inotonga tin inventory yakaratidza kuenderera mberi kuderera.
Lun tin nzvimbo uye Shanghai tin spot maprimiyamu anoramba akakwira
Nekuda kwekuderera kwemateni ekutanga muShanghai neLondon, Lunxi Cash-3M yakachengetedza rekodhi yakakwira kubva muna Kukadzi, ukuwo maprimiyamu eShanghai tin spot uye zvideredzwa zvakakwira zvakanyanya kubva muna Chikumi. Ikozvino Shanghai tin spot premium i5,000 yuan/ton. Iriwo pamwero wakakwirira zvikuru munhau. Izvi zvinoratidza kuti pasi pemamiriro ekupedzisira ezvinyorwa zvakaderera, zvese Shanghai neLondon tin nzvimbo iri munzvimbo yakaoma kwazvo.
Pamusoro pese, iyo tini yekugovera divi inoramba ichikanganiswa, uye kushandiswa kwakabatsirwa kubva kuenderera kwakakwira boom mumasemiconductors. LME + SHFE tin stocks akadonha kurekodha lows, uye tin ingots inoramba ichiratidza mamiriro akaomarara. Nekuda kwekukanganisa kwedenda, nyika huru dzinogadzira tini muSoutheast Asia dzakadzikamisa kudzoreredzwa kwekugadzirwa, uye nyika yakaramba ichikanganiswa nemasimba nemamwe matambudziko, kunyanya muYunnan neGuangxi, idzo nzvimbo huru dzinogadzira matani edzimba. Muchirevo chechinyorwa chino, Shanghai Tin inotarisirwa kurova mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu ezviuru zveyuan/tani mumwedzi mitatu inotevera.
Disclaimer: Ruzivo rwuri muchinyorwa chino nderwekureva chete, kwete sezano rakananga rekuita sarudzo. Kana iwe ukatyora kodzero dzako dzemutemo usingazivi, tapota taura uye gadzirisa nenguva.
Nguva yekutumira: Aug-23-2021