Thaum Lub Yim Hli 17, Meng Wei, tus cev lus ntawm National Development thiab Reform Commission, tau qhia txog kev siv zog siv nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo no: Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, thiab Jiangsu yog 9 lub xeev (thaj chaw) hauv thawj ib nrab xyoo no. Kev siv hluav taws xob tsis tau txo qis xyoo-rau-xyoo tab sis nce ntxiv. Qhov txo qis ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob siv hauv 10 lub xeev tsis tau raws li qhov yuav tsum tau ua, thiab lub teb chaws kev txuag hluav taws xob yog qhov hnyav heev. Cov ntaub ntawv xav kom 9 lub xeev (cov cheeb tsam) uas nws lub zog siv tsis txo qis tab sis nce ntxiv, thiab cov nroog thiab cov cheeb tsam uas nws lub zog siv zog tsis txo qis tab sis nce ntxiv, xyoo no ncua kev tshuaj xyuas kev txuag hluav taws xob ntawm "ob lub siab" cov haujlwm uas tsis yog cov phiaj xwm loj uas tau npaj los ntawm lub xeev. Thiab yaum kom txhua lub zos ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo los ua kom tiav kev siv hluav taws xob txhua xyoo ob lub hom phiaj, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog lub hom phiaj ntawm kev txo qis kev siv hluav taws xob.
Kev txiav txim los ntawm 9 lub xeev (Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, thiab Jiangsu) qhov twg lub zog siv tsis tau poob tab sis tau nce hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, ntau ntawm lawv yog cov neeg tsim khoom loj ntawm txhuas, zinc, thiab tin. District. Xyoo 2020, cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov txhuas txhuas hauv 9 lub xeev no yuav suav txog 40% ntawm lub tebchaws, cov khoom siv zinc ingot yuav suav txog 46.1% ntawm lub tebchaws, thiab cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm tin ingot yuav suav txog 59% ntawm lub tebchaws.
Thaum lub Tsib Hlis thiab Lub Xya Hli, Yunnan, Guangdong, thiab Guangxi tau ua ob zaug ntawm kev txwv hluav taws xob thiab kev txwv ntau lawm, uas ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua rau cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm peb hom no. Los ntawm qhov kev xav tam sim no, thawj theem ceeb toom thaj chaw suav nrog Yunnan thiab Guangxi, qhov chaw hluav taws xob thiab kev tsim khoom tau raug txo qis rau theem no, thiab npog cov chaw tsim khoom tseem ceeb ntawm electrolytic aluminium thiab refined zinc xws li Xinjiang thiab Shaanxi. Yog li ntawd, nws tsis tau txiav txim siab tias ntau yam uas tsis yog-ferrous yuav nthuav dav ntxiv mus rau Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Guangdong thiab lwm qhov chaw. Nyob rau hauv lub neej yav tom ntej, nws yog ib qho tsim nyog yuav tsum tau ua tib zoo mloog rau txoj cai ntawm kev txo qis hluav taws xob thiab kev tsim khoom. Yog tias kev tswj hwm kev siv hluav taws xob tau nce ntxiv rau yav tom ntej, nws yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam ntxiv rau cov khoom siv uas twb muaj lawm.
Tsis tas li ntawd, Guangdong thiab Jiangsu yog ob qho tib si tseem ceeb hauv cheeb tsam noj. Yog li ntawd, yog tias lub zog thiab kev tsim khoom raug txwv nyob rau hauv ob cheeb tsam no nyob rau lub sijhawm tom qab, kev siv hauv cov khoom tsis-ferrous kuj tseem raug txwv.
Feem ntau, nyob rau hauv kev tswj hwm ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob, cov khoom siv sab nraud ntawm cov khoom tsis-ferrous (aluminium, zinc, tin) feem ntau yuav muaj ntau dua qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev noj. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, muaj qhov tshwm sim siab uas cuam tshuam rau ntawm cov khoom siv ntawm cov khoom tsis yog hlau yuav txuas ntxiv mus ntev mus rau yav tom ntej.
Aluminium kev lag luam muab khoom thiab xav tau kev pom zoo
Thaum lub Tsib Hlis 11, Yunnan tau siv cov khoom lag luam staggered ntawm electrolytic aluminium nyob rau hauv lub xeev, yuav tsum tau txo 10% load; Lub Tsib Hlis 18, kev nce hauv kev txiav hluav taws xob yuav tsum tau txo qis 40% hauv kev thauj khoom. Raws li lub Tsib Hlis 31, raws li qhov kev taug qab qhov xwm txheej, qhov ntsuas qhov tseeb ntawm cov khoom txo qis yog ntau dua 20%, uas txhais tau hais tias qhov ntsuas kev txo qis hauv cheeb tsam no yog kwv yees li 880,000 tons.
Txij li thaum nruab nrab Lub Xya Hli, Yunnan tau txwv tsis pub hluav taws xob thiab kev tsim khoom. Ntawm lawv, tuam txhab lag luam txhuas tau thov 25% txiav. Nyob rau lub lim tiam thib ob ntawm lub Yim Hli, cov tuam txhab txhuas tau pib siv 30% txo qis hauv kev tsim khoom. Thawj lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Yim Hli, Guangxi tau koom nrog kev txo hwj chim, nrog cov tuam txhab txhuas txiav lub zog los ntawm 10%; thiab xav kom cov tuam txhab lag luam txhuas siv 30% kev txwv ntau lawm ua ntej lub Yim Hli 15. Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm txhuas lub sij hawm no yog kwv yees li ntawm 400,000 txog 500,000 tons. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, 880,000 tons yav dhau los raug kaw hauv Yunnan yog qhov tsis muaj kev cia siab tias yuav rov pib tsim khoom thaum Lub Yim Hli.
Yog li ntawd, cov khoom siv aluminium hauv tsev tau txuas ntxiv poob mus rau ib xyoos. Raws li qhov kev xav tau tshaj plaws ntawm kev tsim khoom tsim tawm, Tuam Tshoj tus thawj txhuas cov khoom tsim tawm hauv xyoo 2021 yuav tsum yog 39.1 lab tons, uas yog siab dua qhov kev kwv yees thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo. Cov zis poob los ntawm 900,000 tons. Thaum Lub Yim Hli 17, tom qab kev tshaj tawm ua tiav ntawm kev tswj hwm ob lub zog siv nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, lub siab ntawm kev txwv ntau lawm hauv Xinjiang tau nce ntxiv, thiab nws cia siab tias cov khoom tsim tawm txhua xyoo tom ntej yuav raug txo ntxiv.
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev noj haus hauv tsev tau qis dua thaum Lub Yim Hli thiab pib maj mam hloov mus rau lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws. Lub caij nyoog siab tshaj plaws txij lub Cuaj Hli mus txog Kaum Ib Hlis yuav ua rau muaj kev noj qab haus huv zoo dua ib hlis ib hlis.
Tus kws sau kwv yees tias txawm tias muaj kev pov tseg ntawm cov khoom pov tseg thiab cov khoom siv ntshuam, daim ntawv sib npaug ntawm cov khoom siv txhuas thiab cov kev thov yuav nyob twj ywm hauv qhov zoo tom qab xyoo no, thiab cov khoom nqa khoom thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo yuav tiaj tus ntawm 600,000-650,000 tons xyoo tas los.
Zuag qhia tag nrho, tus nqi ntawm 20,000 yuan / tuj tseem tsis tau muaj kev cuam tshuam tag nrho cov khoom siv txhuas yav tom ntej thiab cov qauv xav tau. Kev cog lus ntawm cov khoom siv sab nraud, kev hloov pauv ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam thiab qhov muaj nyob ntawm kev xav tau txawv teb chaws, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv, ua kom zoo dua cov khoom siv thiab cov ntawv thov nyiaj tshuav, nyob rau hauv nruab nrab lub sij hawm, qhov chaw rau aluminium nqi nce yuav tsum tau qhib ntxiv.
Zinc ua lag luam muab khoom thiab xav tau kev pom zoo
Pib txij thaum nruab nrab Lub Tsib Hlis, Yunnan pib siv txoj cai hloov hluav taws xob hloov pauv, thiab feem ntau cov tuam txhab zinc smelting hauv zos txo lub zog load. Nws tuaj yeem muab faib ua ob peb theem: Theem 1: Lub Tsib Hlis 10 thiab Tsib Hlis 17 rau ob lub lis piam Lub zog hluav taws xob poob los ntawm 10%; theem thib ob: ob lub lis piam ntawm Tsib Hlis 24 thiab Lub Rau Hli 1st, qhov txo qis ntawm cov hluav taws xob thauj khoom tau nthuav dav mus rau 30% -50%, thiab txawm tias qee lub tuam txhab tau tso tseg kev tsim khoom; theem thib peb: Lub Rau Hli 7th Zhou Yunnan smelter qhov kev txwv ntau lawm pib loosen marginally, thiab kev tsim khoom maj mam rov pib dua nyob rau nruab nrab mus txog rau lub Rau Hli. Cov zis ntawm Yunnan zinc smelting txij lub Tsib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli yog kwv yees li ntawm 30,000 tons.
Pib txij Lub Xya Hli 14th, Yunnan tau txwv tsis pub siv hluav taws xob thiab kev tsim khoom ib zaug ntxiv, xav kom cov tuam txhab zinc smelting txo lawv cov khoom thauj los ntawm 5% -40% thaum lub sijhawm siv hluav taws xob siab tshaj; qhov kev txo qis hauv lub Yim Hli yog ib zaug nthuav mus rau 5% -50%, thiab cov dynamics pib nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub yim hli ntuj. Kev kho me me. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, thaj av Guangxi kuj tau koom nrog lub zog rationing nyob rau lub Yim Hli, thiab cov tuam txhab zinc smelting hauv zos txo cov load li ntawm 50%. Cov tuam txhab ntiag tug hauv Inner Mongolia kuj tau siv lub zog txwv tsawg dua 10% thaum Lub Yim Hli. Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm hluav taws xob curtailment ntawm zinc smelting tso zis nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj yog kwv yees li ntawm 10,000 tons, thiab nws tej zaum yuav tshaj 20,000 tons nyob rau hauv Lub yim hli ntuj.
Tsis tas li ntawd, thaum Lub Yim Hli 16, muaj kev nyab xeeb loj tshwm sim hauv kev lag luam txhuas-zinc smelting hauv Inner Mongolia. Nws cov hlau smelting ntau lawm tau raug tshem tawm, thiab nws cov zinc smelting ntau lawm kuj ntsib teeb meem tsis meej nyob rau hauv nruab nrab lub sij hawm.
Yog li ntawd, kev nce hauv cov khoom siv zinc smelting hauv tsev nyob rau lub Xya Hli yog tsawg dua li qhov xav tau, thiab cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm lub hli nyob rau lub Yim Hli yuav poob dua. Tom qab xyoo no, tus nqi nce ntawm cov khoom siv zinc smelting hauv tsev kuj tseem yuav qis dua.
Nyob rau theem no, cov khoom lag luam zinc ingot hauv tsev yog qhov hloov pauv ntawm qib qis ntawm 110,000-120,000 tons, thiab cov chaw hauv tsev tau qhia tus nqi, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Guangdong. Tus nqi yog pom tseeb dua; Nws cia siab tias cov khoom lag luam zinc ingot hauv tsev yuav txuas ntxiv ntawm 100,000 tom qab xyoo no- Theem ntawm 150,000 tons.
Nrog rau qhov tseem ceeb ntxiv ntawm cov khoom pov tseg pov tseg, cov khoom siv zinc ingot hauv tsev thiab kev thov tuaj yeem hloov pauv los ntawm qhov sib npaug nruj mus rau qhov seem me ntsis tom qab xyoo no, tab sis qhov loj ntawm cov nyiaj seem yog me me.
Hauv cov ntsiab lus, qhov kev txwv ntawm zinc smelting nyob rau sab qab teb sab hnub poob yog khaws cia, thiab cov khoom siv smelting yuav raug cuam tshuam los yog normalized tom qab xyoo no. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev noj haus txawv teb chaws txuas ntxiv txhim kho, thiab lub teb chaws pib maj mam hloov mus rau lub caij noj haus. Kev pov tseg ntawm cov khoom pov tseg tuaj yeem nce qib zinc cov khoom lag luam hauv theem, tab sis tus nqi nce yuav raug txwv. Nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm luv luv, zinc nqi yuav tsum nce mus rau 23,000 -23.2 lab yuan / ton. Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab lub sij hawm, nws yuav nyuaj rau zinc nqi kom tawg tawm ntawm ib tug ntshiab trending lag luam.
Tin khw muag khoom thiab xav tau outlook
Kev faib tawm ntawm cov tin ntau lawm yog cov concentrated, thiab cov khoom ntawm lub teb chaws tsim khoom tseem ceeb tsis tu ncua
Kev faib tawm ntawm refined tin ntau lawm nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no yog heev concentrated. Xyoo 2020, Tuam Tshoj, Indonesia thiab Malaysia yuav suav txog 75.2% ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb hauv Asia. Kev faib tawm ntawm refined tin ntau lawm nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj kuj yog heev concentrated. Kev tsim cov tin refined hauv Guangxi thiab Yunnan ua ke suav txog 59% ntawm lub tebchaws.
Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, qhov xwm txheej muaj kabmob sib kis hauv Indonesia, Malaysia, thiab Myanmar tau txuas ntxiv zuj zus ntxiv, uas tau ua rau kev rov qab los ntawm cov khoom tsim tawm ntawm cov teb chaws loj hauv Asia sab hnub tuaj. Cov txiaj ntsig ntawm Malaysian Smelting Group thiab Tianma Company txawm poob qis heev. Nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg, cov refined tin tso zis ntawm Tianma Tuam txhab uas muag poob los ntawm ze li ntawm 10,000 tons xyoo-rau-xyoo. , Roskill, tus thawj coj ntawm Malaysian Smelting Group, cia siab tias yuav txo qis kev tsim khoom los ntawm 50-10,000 tons xyoo no.
Txij li thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo no, tus kab mob tshwm sim hauv Myanmar tsis tsuas yog cuam tshuam rau nws tus kheej kev tsim khoom, tab sis kuj cuam tshuam rau kev lis kev cai ntawm Suav chaw nres nkoj. Vim muaj qhov tshwm sim hauv Myanmar, qhov chaw nres nkoj Ruili ntawm Yunnan tau dhau los ua ntau yam kev sim nucleic acid thiab kaw kev lis kev cai rau txhua tus neeg ua haujlwm, uas tau cuam tshuam rau kev xa khoom hauv tsev tin ore rau qee yam. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev tshuaj xyuas ib puag ncig hauv lub Plaub Hlis, kev txiav hluav taws xob hauv Yunnan txij thaum nruab nrab Lub Tsib Hlis thiab kev txiav hluav taws xob hauv Guangxi thaum Lub Yim Hli tau cuam tshuam tag nrho cov kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm cov khoom siv tin.
Hluav taws xob curtailment ua rau kev poob siab ntawm kev xa khoom hauv tsev
Thaum lub Tsib Hlis, vim muaj hluav taws xob tsis txaus hauv Yunnan, tag nrho cov smelters tsuas yog Yunxi raug kaw. Nyob rau hauv lub hlis ntawd, domestic tin ingot ntau lawm yog ze li ntawm 2,000 tons qis tshaj qhov xav tau thaum pib ntawm lub hli. Thaum Lub Rau Hli 28, Yunxi tau saib xyuas tsis pub dhau 45 hnub. Tuam Tshoj tus tin ingot ntau lawm txuas ntxiv mus cuam tshuam loj heev. Nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj, cov zis ntawm tin ingot poob los ntawm 2,800 tons ntawm lub hli dhau los. Nyob rau hauv nruab nrab-rau-Lub Yim Hli, Yunxi maj mam rov zoo, tab sis Guangxi tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev txiav hluav taws xob, uas kwv yees yuav cuam tshuam rau kev tsim tawm txog li 1,000 tons, uas yuav cuam tshuam rau kev nce qib ntawm kev rov ua kom zoo ntawm cov tin ntau lawm.
Txij li thaum lub Tsib Hlis, tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev loj hlob muaj zog ntawm kev siv tin txawv teb chaws, lub qhov rais xa tawm tin tau txuas ntxiv qhib, thiab Tuam Tshoj cov tin ingot xa tawm tau nce zuj zus, thiab Tuam Tshoj cov tin smelting tau cuam tshuam los ntawm lub zog rationing hauv Yunnan thiab Guangxi. Tin stocks tseem nyob ntawm cov ntaub ntawv qis, thiab ob qho tib si Shanghai thiab London tin stocks pom qhov xwm txheej nruj heev.
Qhov pom tseeb tin cov khoom lag luam tseem poob qis
Raws li lub Yim Hli 13, tag nrho LME + SHFE tin cov khoom muag yog 3,57 tons, qhov txo qis ntawm 3,708 tons los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm xyoo tas los thiab txo qis ntawm 5,236 tons ntawm tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Shanghai tin stocks poob mus txog 1,500 tons, uas yog ib qho qis heev txij li tau teev tseg, thaum Lunxi tseem nyob rau theem qis ntawm txog 2,000 tons. Ntawm qhov tod tes, qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom lag luam tin tau pom qhov kev poob qis ntxiv.
Lun tin qhov chaw thiab Shanghai tin qhov chaw tus nqi tseem nyob siab
Vim tias cov khoom lag luam qis hauv Shanghai thiab London, Lunxi Cash-3M tau khaws cov ntaub ntawv siab txij li Lub Ob Hlis, thaum Shanghai tin qhov chaw them nqi thiab cov nyiaj cheb tau nce siab txij lub Rau Hli. Tam sim no Shanghai tin qhov nqi them yog 5,000 yuan / tuj. Nws kuj yog nyob rau theem siab heev hauv keeb kwm. Qhov no qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv keeb kwm yav dhau ntawm cov khoom muag tsis tshua muaj, ob qho tib si Shanghai thiab London tin qhov chaw nyob hauv lub xeev nruj heev.
Ntawm qhov tod tes, cov khoom lag luam tin txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam, thiab kev noj tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev nce siab ntxiv hauv semiconductors. LME + SHFE tin stocks tau poob rau cov ntaub ntawv qis, thiab cov tin ingots txuas ntxiv qhia qhov xwm txheej nruj heev. Vim muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev sib kis, lub teb chaws tsim cov tin loj nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Asia tau ua rau cov khoom lag luam rov qab qeeb, thiab lub teb chaws tau txuas ntxiv cuam tshuam los ntawm lub zog thiab lwm yam teeb meem, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv Yunnan thiab Guangxi, cov chaw tsim khoom tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev. Hauv cov ntsiab lus no, Shanghai Tin xav tias yuav ntaus 250,000 yuan / tuj hauv peb lub hlis tom ntej.
Disclaimer: Cov ntaub ntawv muaj nyob rau hauv tsab xov xwm no tsuas yog siv rau kev siv xwb, tsis yog kev txiav txim siab ncaj qha. Yog tias koj tsis txhob txwm ua txhaum koj txoj cai lij choj, thov hu rau thiab ua raws li lub sijhawm.
Post lub sij hawm: Aug-23-2021