Ngo-August 17, uMeng Wei, umkhulumeli weKhomishini Yentuthuko Nezinguquko Kazwelonke, wethula ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kagesi engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka: Qinghai, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guangdong, Fujian, Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shaanxi, kanye neJiangsu kwakuyizifundazwe eziyi-9 engxenyeni yokuqala yalo nyaka. Amandla okusetshenziswa kwamandla awehlanga unyaka nonyaka kodwa anyukile. Izinga lokwehliswa kwamandla okusetshenziswa kwamandla ezifundazweni eziyi-10 alihlangabezananga nezidingo zenqubekelaphambili, futhi isimo sikazwelonke sokongiwa kukagesi sibi kakhulu. Lo mbhalo udinga ukuthi izifundazwe (izifunda) eziyisi-9 amandla azo anamandla anganciphi kodwa anyuke, namadolobha nezifunda amandla azo angehli kodwa anyuke, kulo nyaka kumiswe ukubuyekezwa okonga ugesi kwamaphrojekthi “amabili aphezulu” ngaphandle kwamaphrojekthi amakhulu ahlelwe nguhulumeni. Futhi sinxusa zonke izindawo ukuthi zithathe izinyathelo ezisebenzayo zokuqinisekisa ukuphothulwa komgomo okabili wonyaka wokulawula ukusetshenziswa kwamandla, ikakhulukazi umsebenzi ohlosiwe wokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwamandla kagesi.
Uma sibheka izifundazwe ezingu-9 (i-Qinghai, i-Ningxia, i-Guangxi, i-Guangdong, i-Fujian, i-Xinjiang, i-Yunnan, i-Shaanxi, ne-Jiangsu) lapho ukuqina kwamandla engazange ehle khona kodwa akhuphuka engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, abaningi babo babengabakhiqizi abakhulu be-aluminium, i-zinc, ne-tin. Isifunda. Ngo-2020, ukukhiqizwa kwe-aluminium eyisisekelo kulezi zifundazwe eziyi-9 kuzobalelwa ku-40% wezwe, ukukhiqizwa kwe-zinc ingot kuzoba ku-46.1% wezwe, kanti ukukhiqizwa kwe-tin ingot kuzoba ku-59% wezwe.
NgoMeyi nangoJulayi, i-Yunnan, i-Guangdong, ne-Guangxi zenze imizuliswano emibili yokunciphisa ugesi kanye nemikhawulo yokukhiqiza, okubangele ukuphazamiseka okukhulu ekuphumeni kwalezi zinhlobo ezintathu. Ngokombono wamanje, izindawo zokuxwayisa zezinga lokuqala zihlanganisa i-Yunnan ne-Guangxi, lapho ugesi nokukhiqiza kuye kwancishiswa kakhulu kulesi sigaba, futhi kuhlanganisa izindawo ezibalulekile zokukhiqiza i-aluminium electrolytic kanye ne-zinc ecwengisisiwe njenge-Xinjiang ne-Shaanxi. Ngakho-ke, akunqatshelwe ukuthi izinhlobo ezingezona ezoniwe zizonwetshwa ku-Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Guangdong nakwezinye izindawo. Esikhathini esizayo, kuyadingeka ukunaka kakhulu inqubomgomo yokuncishiswa kukagesi nokukhiqiza. Uma ukulawulwa kokusetshenziswa kwamandla kwenyuka ngokuzayo, kungase kube omunye umthelela omubi ekuphakeleni okuvele kuntekenteke.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-Guangdong ne-Jiangsu zombili ziyizifunda ezibalulekile ezisetshenziswayo. Ngakho-ke, uma amandla nokukhiqiza kukhawulelwe kulezi zifunda ezimbili esikhathini esizayo, ukusetshenziswa emkhakheni ongeyona i-ferrous nakho kuzobe kukhawulelwe.
Ngokuvamile, ngaphansi kokulawulwa kokusetshenziswa kwamandla, izithiyo zohlangothi lokunikezela emikhiqizweni engeyona insimbi (i-aluminium, i-zinc, ithini) cishe zizoba zinkulu kunomthelela ekusetshenzisweni. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, kunethuba elikhulu lokuthi ukuphazamiseka ohlangothini lokunikezwa kwe-non-ferrous kuzoqhubeka nokusebenza isikhathi eside esikhathini esizayo.
Ukunikezwa kwemakethe ye-aluminium kanye nokubukeka kwesidingo
Ngomhla ziyi-11 kuNhlaba, u-Yunnan wasebenzisa ukukhiqizwa okumangalisayo kwe-aluminum ye-electrolytic esifundazweni, edinga ukuncishiswa komthwalo ngo-10%; ngoMeyi 18, ukwanda kokunqanyulwa kukagesi kwadinga ukuncishiswa komthwalo ngo-40%. Kusukela ngoMeyi 31, ngokwesimo sokulandelela, isilinganiso sangempela sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa sasingaphezu kuka-20%, okusho ukuthi isilinganiso sokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kule ndawo singamathani angama-880,000.
Kusukela maphakathi noJulayi, u-Yunnan usephinde wakhawulela ugesi nokukhiqizwa. Phakathi kwazo, izinkampani ze-aluminium zifuna ukusikwa ngo-25%. Ngesonto lesibili lika-Agasti, izinkampani ze-aluminium zaqala ukwehlisa ukukhiqizwa ngo-30%. Ngesonto lokuqala lika-Agasti, i-Guangxi yajoyina ukuncishiswa kwamandla, nezinkampani ze-aluminium zisika amandla ngo-10%; futhi idinga izinkampani ze-aluminium ukuthi zisebenzise umkhawulo wokukhiqiza we-30% ngaphambi kuka-Agasti 15. Umthelela we-aluminium ngalesi sikhathi ulinganiselwa ezingeni lamathani angu-400,000 kuya ku-500,000. Ngasikhathi sinye, amathani angama-880,000 abevalwe ngaphambilini eYunnan awanathemba lokuthi angaqala kabusha ukukhiqiza ngo-Agasti.
Ngakho-ke, ukuphuma kwe-aluminium yasekhaya kuye kwaqhubeka nokwehla unyaka wonke. Ngokombono omuhle kakhulu wokuhlela ukukhiqiza, ukuphuma kwe-aluminium eyinhloko yaseChina ngo-2021 kulindeleke ukuthi kube amathani ayizigidi ezingu-39.1, okungaphezulu kwesibikezelo ekuqaleni konyaka. Umphumela wehle ngamathani angu-900,000. Ngo-August 17, ngemva kokumenyezelwa kokuphothulwa kokulawulwa okukabili kokusetshenziswa kwamandla engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka, ingcindezi yemikhawulo yokukhiqiza e-Xinjiang iye yanda kakhulu, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhishwa kwe-aluminium kwaminyaka yonke okulandelayo kuzoncishiswa nakakhulu.
Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukusetshenziswa kwasekhaya kwehle ngo-Agasti futhi kwaqala ukushintshela enkathini evamile yosuku. Isikhathi esivamile sokuphakama kusukela ngoSepthemba kuya kuNovemba sizothuthukisa ukusetshenziswa kwenyanga nenyanga.
Umlobi ubikezela ukuthi ngisho nokulahlwa kwezinto ezigciniwe kanye nezithako zokungenisa kwamanye amazwe, ishidi lebhalansi lokuhlinzekwa kwe-aluminium kanye nesidingo lizohlala lisesimweni esihle ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulo nyaka, futhi i-inventory yokuthutha ekupheleni konyaka ingase ibe flat ezingeni lamathani angu-600,000-650,000 ngonyaka odlule.
Sekukonke, intengo engu-20,000 yuan/ton ayikabonakali ngokugcwele ikusasa le-aluminium kanye nephethini yokufunwa. Ukuncishiswa kohlangothi lokuhlinzeka, ukulungiswa komkhakha wabathengi kanye nokuba khona kwesidingo sokugcwaliswa kabusha phesheya kwezilwandle, ikakhulukazi ukuphazamiseka kohlangothi lokuhlinzeka, kuthuthukisa ishidi lebhalansi yokuhlinzeka nokufunwa, esikhathini esimaphakathi, isikhala sokukhuphuka kwamanani e-aluminium kulindeleke ukuthi siphinde sivulwe.
Ukunikezwa kwemakethe ye-Zinc kanye nokubukeka kwesidingo
Kusukela maphakathi noMeyi, u-Yunnan waqala ukusebenzisa inqubomgomo yokushintsha umthamo wamandla, futhi amabhizinisi amaningi endawo ancibilikisa i-zinc anciphisa umthwalo wamandla. Ingahlukaniswa ngokwezigaba eziningana: Isigaba 1: Meyi 10 kanye noMeyi 17 amasonto amabili Umthwalo kagesi wehle ngo-10%; isigaba sesibili: amasonto amabili kaMeyi 24 kanye noJuni 1, ukuncishiswa komthwalo kagesi kwanda ngokushesha kwafinyelela ku-30% -50%, futhi ngisho namanye amabhizinisi ayeka ukukhiqiza; isigaba sesithathu: Juni 7 umkhawulo wokukhiqiza we-smelter Zhou Yunnan waqala ukuxega kancane, futhi ukukhiqizwa kancane kancane kwaqala kabusha maphakathi no-Juni. Umphumela wokuncibilika kwe-zinc kaYunnan kusukela ngoMeyi kuya kuJuni ulinganiselwa kumathani angama-30,000.
Kusukela mhla ziyi-14 kuJulayi, i-Yunnan iphinde yakhawulela ugesi nokukhiqizwa, okudinga izinkampani ezincibilikisa i-zinc ukuthi zehlise umthwalo wazo ngo-5% -40% ngesikhathi sokusetshenziswa kukagesi okuphezulu; ukuncishiswa komthwalo ngo-Agasti kwake kwanwetshwa kwafinyelela ku-5% -50%, futhi amandla aqala engxenyeni yesibili ka-August. Ukulungiswa okuncane. Ngasikhathi sinye, isifunda saseGuangxi siphinde sajoyina isilinganiso samandla ngo-Agasti, futhi amabhizinisi endawo ancibilikisa i-zinc anciphisa umthwalo cishe ngo-50%. Izinkampani ngazinye e-Inner Mongolia nazo zisebenzisa umkhawulo wamandla ongaphansi kuka-10% ngo-Agasti. Umthelela wokuncishiswa kukagesi ekuncibilikisweni kwe-zinc ngoJulayi ulinganiselwa ukuthi ungamathani ayizi-10,000, futhi ungase udlule amathani angu-20,000 ngo-August.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngo-August 16, kwenzeka ingozi enkulu yezokuphepha ebhizinisini lokuncibilikisa i-zinc yomthofu e-Inner Mongolia. Ukukhiqizwa kwayo kokuncibilikisa umthofu kumisiwe, futhi ukukhiqizwa kwayo kokuncibilikisa i-zinc nakho kubhekene nokungaqiniseki okusobala maphakathi nethemu.
Ngakho-ke, ukwanda kokuncibilikiswa kwe-zinc yasekhaya ngoJulayi bekungaphansi kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe, futhi umphumela wenyanga nenyanga ngo-Agasti uzokwehla futhi. Kamuva kulo nyaka, izinga lokwenyuka kokuphuma kwe-zinc yasekhaya lizoncibilika nalo lizokwehliswa.
Kulesi sigaba, i-inventory ye-zinc ingot yasekhaya ishintsha ngokuyisisekelo ngezinga eliphansi lamathani ayi-110,000-120,000, futhi indawo yasekhaya ibonisa i-premium, ikakhulukazi e-Guangdong. I-premium isobala kakhulu; kulindeleke ukuthi i-inventory ye-zinc ingot yasekhaya izoqhubeka ku-100,000 kamuva kulo nyaka- Izinga lamathani angu-150,000.
Ngesengezo esiyinhloko sezinqolobane zokulahla, ukunikezwa kwengot ye-zinc yasekhaya kanye nokufunwa kungase kusuke ebhalansini eqinile kuye ensaleni encane kamuva kulo nyaka, kodwa ubukhulu bensalela mancane kakhulu.
Kafushane, umkhawulo wokukhiqiza wokuncibilikisa i-zinc esifundeni esiseningizimu-ntshonalanga uyagcinwa, futhi uhlangothi lokuncibilikisa lokuncibilikisa luzophazamiseka noma lube lujwayelekile ngokuhamba kwesikhathi kulo nyaka. Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukusetshenziswa kwezilwandle kwaqhubeka nokuba ngcono, futhi izwe laqala ukushintshela enkathini ephezulu yokusetshenziswa. Ukulahlwa kwezinqolobane kungase kukhuphule amazinga e-zinc inventory ngezigaba, kodwa izinga lokunyuka lingase libe nomkhawulo. Esikhathini esifushane, amanani e-zinc kulindeleke ukuthi akhuphukele ku-23,000 -23.2 million yuan/ton. Esikhathini esimaphakathi, kungase kube nzima ukuthi amanani e-zinc aphume emakethe ethrendayo ecacile.
Ukunikezwa kwemakethe yamathini kanye nokubukeka kwesidingo
Ukusatshalaliswa kokukhiqizwa kwamathini kugxile kakhulu, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kwamazwe akhiqizayo ayinhloko kuhlala kuphazamiseka
Ukusatshalaliswa kokukhiqizwa kwamathini acolisisiwe emhlabeni kugxile kakhulu. Ngo-2020, i-China, i-Indonesia ne-Malaysia izobalelwa ku-75.2% womkhiqizo womhlaba wonke e-Asia. Ukusatshalaliswa kokukhiqizwa kwethini elicolisisiwe eChina nakho kugxile kakhulu. Ukukhiqizwa kwethayela elicolisisiwe e-Guangxi nase-Yunnan ngokuhlangene kwenza ama-59% ezwe.
Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, isimo esiwumqedazwe e-Indonesia, eMalaysia naseMyanmar siqhubekile nokuba sibi kakhulu, osekubambezele ukutholwa komkhiqizo wamazwe amakhulu akhiqiza amathani aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Umphumela we-Malaysian Smelting Group kanye ne-Tianma Company uze wehla kakhulu. Ngekota yokuqala, ukukhishwa kwethayela elicolisisiwe kwe-Tianma Company kwehle cishe ngamathani ayi-10,000 unyaka nonyaka. , u-Roskill, isikhulu se-Malaysian Smelting Group, ulindele ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa ngamathani angu-50-10,000 kulo nyaka.
Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, ukuqubuka kweMyanmar akuzange kuthinte ukukhiqizwa kwayo kuphela, kodwa futhi kuthinte ukucaciswa kwamasiko emachwebeni aseShayina. Ngenxa yokuqubuka kodlame lwaseMyanmar, ichweba laseRuili laseYunnan selihlolwe kaningi i-nucleic acid nokuvalwa kwamasiko kubo bonke abasebenzi, okube nomthelela ekungenweni kwensimbi yasekhaya ngezinga elithile. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukuhlolwa kwemvelo ngo-Ephreli, ukunqanyulwa kukagesi e-Yunnan kusukela maphakathi noMeyi kanye nokunqanyulwa kukagesi e-Guangxi ngo-August konke kuphazamise ukukhiqizwa kukathayela ocolisisiwe.
Ukuncipha kukagesi kubangele ukuncipha okungalindelekile kokuphakelwa kwasekhaya
NgoMeyi, ngenxa yokushoda kukagesi eYunnan, zonke izincibilikisi zikathayela zavalwa ngaphandle kwaseYunxi. Ngaleyo nyanga, ukukhiqizwa kwengot kathayela wasekhaya kwakucishe kube ngamathani angu-2,000 kunokulindelekile ekuqaleni kwenyanga. Ngomhla zingama-28 kuNhlangulana, uYunxi wathola isondlo isikhathi esingekho ngaphezu kwezinsuku ezingama-45. Ukukhiqizwa kwe-tin e-China kwaqhubeka nokuphazamiseka kakhulu. NgoJulayi, ukukhishwa kwe-tin ingot kwehle ngamathani angu-2,800 kusukela enyangeni edlule. Maphakathi no-Agasti ekuqaleni, u-Yunxi walulama kancane kancane, kodwa i-Guangxi yaphazanyiswa ukunqanyulwa kukagesi, okulinganiselwa ukuthi kuzothinta ukukhiqizwa kwamathani angaba ngu-1,000, okuzophazamisa inqubekelaphambili yokubuyiswa kokukhiqizwa kukathayela ocolisisiwe.
Kusukela ngoMeyi, ehlomula ekukhuleni okuqinile kokusetshenziswa kukathayela phesheya kwezilwandle, iwindi lokuthunyelwa kwethayela lisaqhubeka nokuvuleka, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwethayela eChina kuye kwanda kakhulu, kanti ukuncibilikiswa kukathayela eChina kuphazamisekile ngenxa yokwabiwa kwamandla eYunnan naseGuangxi. Izitokwe zamathini zahlala zisezingeni eliphansi, futhi zombili izitoko zethayela zaseShanghai naseLondon zibonise isimo esiqinile.
I-inventory ye-tin ebonakalayo iyaqhubeka nokwehla
Kusukela ngo-Agasti 13, isamba sesamba seqoqo lamathini e-LME+SHFE kwaba amathani angu-3,57, ukwehla ngamathani angu-3,708 kusukela ekupheleni konyaka odlule kanye nokwehla ngamathani angu-5,236 kusukela esikhathini esifanayo ngonyaka odlule. Ngaso leso sikhathi, amasheya e-Shanghai tin awela cishe amathani ayi-1,500, okwakuyizinga eliphansi kakhulu selokhu afakwa ohlwini, kuyilapho iLunxi yahlala isezingeni eliphansi lamathani angaba ngu-2,000. Sekukonke, i-inventory ye-tin ehamba phambili ibonise ukwehla okuqhubekayo.
I-Lun tin spot kanye namaprimiyamu e-Shanghai tin spot ahlala ephezulu
Ngenxa yokutholakala kwe-tin ephansi e-Shanghai nase-London, i-Lunxi Cash-3M igcine irekhodi eliphezulu kusukela ngo-February, kuyilapho amaphrimiyamu e-Shanghai tin spot nezaphulelo zikhuphuke kakhulu kusukela ngoJuni. Amaphrimiyamu amanje e-Shanghai tin spot angu-5,000 yuan/ton. Iphinde ibe sezingeni eliphezulu kakhulu emlandweni. Lokhu kukhombisa ukuthi ngaphansi kwesizinda sezimpahla eziphansi kakhulu, kokubili i-Shanghai ne-London tin spot isesimweni esibambene kakhulu.
Sekukonke, uhlangothi lokuhlinzekwa kwethayela luyaqhubeka nokuphazamiseka, futhi ukusetshenziswa kuye kwazuza ekuqhubekeleni phambili kwe-boom ephezulu kuma-semiconductors. Izitokwe zamathini e-LME+SHFE ziwile ukuze zirekhode phansi, futhi ama-tin ingots aqhubeka nokubonisa isimo esiqinile. Ngenxa yomthelela walolu bhubhane, amazwe ayinhloko akhiqiza ithini eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia abambezele ukukhula kokukhiqizwa, futhi izwe liye laqhubeka nokuphazanyiswa amandla nezinye izinkinga, ikakhulukazi e-Yunnan nase-Guangxi, izindawo eziyinhloko ezikhiqiza ama-tin ingots afuywayo. Kulo mongo, i-Shanghai Tin kulindeleke ukuthi ifinyelele ku-250,000 yuan/ton ezinyangeni ezintathu ezizayo.
Umusho wokuzihlangula: Ulwazi oluqukethwe kulesi sihloko olokubhekisela kuphela, hhayi njengesiphakamiso esiqondile sokwenza izinqumo. Uma wephula ngokungenhloso amalungelo akho omthetho, sicela uthinte futhi ubhekane nakho kusenesikhathi.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-23-2021